Post-Paris discussion
22nd January 2016

Elephants in the room


David MacKay FRS

Department of Engineering
University of Cambridge

Former Chief Scientific Advisor
Department of Energy and Climate Change


 

Inconsistency with any cost-optimal pathway


Negative emissions

Successful action requires extremely large negative emissions (in order to make net emissions zero). No countries are developing negative emissions technologies. Not all countries would be able to deploy negative emissions.

Diet and farming practices

The strongest levers in the global calculator!

Biomass – carbon accounting in the landscape

Some states are switching to bioenergy, but it has limited technical potential, it fights with food, and increasing bioenergy farming may well cause net carbon emissions.

Climate change is a commons problem

Paris pretends to have solved the commons problem – but has not employed any of the lessons of the science of cooperation. Why will parties "raise their ambition" to the required level?

Population

Beware climate policies that incentivise population growth?

Economic growth

Inconsistency with any cost-optimal pathway

Negative emissions

Diet and farming practices

Biomass – carbon accounting in the landscape

Climate change is a commons problem

Population

Economic growth

Inconsistency with any cost-optimal pathway


Negative emissions

Successful action requires extremely large negative emissions (in order to make net emissions zero). No countries are developing negative emissions technologies. Not all countries would be able to deploy negative emissions.


10-20 (or 40) Gt CO2 / year

(85 M barrels per day)

Diet and farming practices

The strongest levers in the global calculator!

The Global Calculator – globalcalculator.org

Biomass versus reforestation – carbon accounting in the landscape

Some states are switching to bioenergy, but it has limited technical potential, it fights with food, and increasing bioenergy farming may well cause net carbon emissions.
Source: IPCC

"BEaC"

Climate change is a commons problem

Paris pretends to have solved the commons problem – but has not employed any of the lessons of the science of cooperation. Why will parties "raise their ambition" to the required level?

Nature,
12th October 2015

Why negotiating a price can yield a better outcome





See also carbon-price.com

Summary of Cramton/Stoft/Ockenfels


Negotiations can be designed to realign self-interests and promote cooperation.

Reciprocity

Individual commitments and reviews will not solve the tragedy of the commons.
A common commitment ("I will if you will") can.

Negotiate Price

A global carbon-price commitment could yield a strong treaty, especially if coupled to Green Fund transfers, incentivizing low-emitting countries to support a high carbon price.

30 November 2015




2 December 2015

Population

Beware climate policies that incentivise population growth?

Economic growth

Inconsistency with any cost-optimal pathway

Negative emissions

Diet and farming practices

Biomass – carbon accounting in the landscape

Climate change is a commons problem

Population

Economic growth


  'Okay – it's agreed; we announce – "to do nothing is not an option!" then we wait and see how things pan out...'
Lowe, Private Eye

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